tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6419599995602821000.post9160097500720693015..comments2018-07-02T17:56:42.458-07:00Comments on February 31st: Russia to move into eastern Ukraine? Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07026605356104584889noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6419599995602821000.post-28618852566619448592014-03-17T09:41:27.491-07:002014-03-17T09:41:27.491-07:00Thanks. I'm still trying to absorb all this. I...Thanks. I'm still trying to absorb all this. IIRC The Ukrainian government claims it has negotiated some kind of peace deal until 21 March, but Russia could call this off at any moment and launch a surprise attack since it doesn't accept the legitimacy of the government in Kyiv.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07026605356104584889noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6419599995602821000.post-23886372538843239552014-03-16T23:55:30.293-07:002014-03-16T23:55:30.293-07:00"It would make no sense for Russia to go beyo..."It would make no sense for Russia to go beyond the Dnieper."<br /><br />It depends on the crossing point. I would suggest a map, a stylized one <a href="http://mapsontheweb.zoom-maps.com/image/74615649981" rel="nofollow">like this</a> or a <a href="http://www.ukrainetravelmate.com/images/maps/map-of-ukraine.jpg" rel="nofollow">more detailed one</a>. Crossing the Dnieper near Kyiv or Cherkasy means entering the so-called "west-bank (lit. "right bank") Ukraine". This area, including Zhytomir, Vinnytsya, Khmelnitsky, Kirovohrad and the west-bank parts of the Cherkasy and Kyiv oblasts, was annexed by Russia after the partitions of Poland, late in the 18th century. Daniel Beauvois has written much on this part of Ukraine from 1790 to 1917. It experienced Communist rule in full starting from 1919.<br /><br />Further east, Rivne and Volyn became Russian along with the rest of the west bank but in 1920, Poland seized these two oblasts and they escaped the fierce Sovietization of the 1920-30s.<br /><br />Lviv, Ternopil, Ivano-Frankivsk (Stanislaw), Uzhhorod and Chernivtsi were not part of the Russian empire and were fully incorporated in the USSR after WWII.<br /><br />But if you cross the Dnieper further south, in Dnipropetrovsk or Kherson, and enter the Mykolaiv and Odessa oblasts, you won't see much of a change because both sides of the Dnieper in the south were settled at about the same time, much later than the rest of Ukraine. There seems to be no significant difference between Odessa and Mykolaiv on the west bank and Kherson and Zaporizhzhya on on the east bank. The one exception is the southwest of Odessa between the Dniester and the Danube.Alex Khttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05922917428608106970noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6419599995602821000.post-77372441543620579212014-03-16T13:52:28.674-07:002014-03-16T13:52:28.674-07:00No, I hadn't seen that. Interesting. It would ...No, I hadn't seen that. Interesting. It would make no sense for Russia to go beyond the Dnieper. I'm reminded of a passage in Andrew Wilson's history of Ukraine (read it two years ago - will have to dig it out again) where he says the USSR made a massive mistake trying to absorb Western Ukraine after WW2 as the region was unassimiliable and unsovietisable (is that a word? It is now). JCass ("Terry Lennox")noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6419599995602821000.post-76697052894292222042014-03-16T11:24:36.578-07:002014-03-16T11:24:36.578-07:00Have you seen Edward Luttwak's earlier piece i...Have you seen Edward Luttwak's earlier <a href="http://www.newrepublic.com/article/116905/russia-wants-much-more-crimea" rel="nofollow">piece</a> in <i>TNR</i>? A more recent version is <a href="http://asia.nikkei.com/Viewpoints/Geopolitico/Edward-Luttwak-Putin-s-unhindered-advance-won-t-go-unnoticed-in-China" rel="nofollow">here</a><br /><br />Luttwak is a heavyweight but he's fond of controversial hypothesizing. "Novy Russia" must be <i>Novorossiya</i>, the historical name for the steppes of what is now Southern Ukraine and Russia's Rostov and Krasnodar, settled relatively recently, mostly in the 19th century (recall that Chichikov was buying up the dead souls to resettle them in the Kherson governorship). I wonder where Luttwak got the details on the flag. Alex Khttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05922917428608106970noreply@blogger.com