Saturday, 8 March 2014

Belarus reaction

Earlier this morning I read an article in Belarus Digest: "Belarus Refuses to Support Russia's Invasion of Ukraine." It was available here, but this is now "Page Not Found". Computer glitch or political censorship? I have no idea.

Although Belarus is firmly within the Great Russian sphere of influence, Lukashenka has not always toed Moscow's line. He has never recognised the independence of Abkhazia or South Ossetia, for example.

On the other hand, Putin probably does not care unduly. Unlike Ukraine, with its dangerous Orange and Euromaidan revolutions, Belarus has never offered a threat to Putinism by providing a viable alternative political path. Quite the contrary. Belarus is the dystopian role model nobody in the rest of the former Soviet Union wants to follow.

Still, it's worth keeping an eye on the reactions of Belarus and Kazakhstan - both countries with large ethnic Russian populations and no NATO membership.

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