Sorry, I've been too busy to write a substantial post recently.

Meanwhile, it looks like Putin is taking a breather too - at least on the surface. I imagine he will consolidate in Crimea and remove the remaining Ukrainian troops there before proceeding to the next stage of military action (assuming there's going to be one). He has two months to undermine the credibility of the interim government in Kyiv. Expect plenty of smears and black ops (such as leaking private phone calls).

Putin's unpredictability will help him in the short term. In the long run, it will simply turn Russia into a bigger version of North Korea, feared but not respected. Having an opportunist and blatant liar like Putin as an ally must be looking a less and less attractive prospect for potential partners around the world.

*****

Elsewhere, Window on Eurasia is a blog with some fascinating posts. The latest are on the Kremilin's anti-Western mythology, the problem of the Crimean Tatars and the dilemmas of Alyaksandr Lukashenka.